REPORT: OSUN 7th Largest Economy In Nigeria – Renaissance Capital

Screen Shot 2014-04-19 at 9.07.11 AMThis exercise is an attempt to develop a greater understanding of Nigeria at state level. As we had expected, our analysis confirms that Lagos State is Nigeria’s biggest economy, producing c. 12% of the country’s national income. Post-rebasing of GDP in 2013, we expect Lagos State economy to become Africa’s 13th biggest economy at c. $45bn – equivalent to Ghana.

Households in Nigeria’s southern states are better educated and have smaller household sizes. States that cluster around key commercial states also benefit from externalities. In the SW where Lagos State has the highest per-capita income, Oyo and Osun States also score highly.

Consumer companies are likely to find the greatest opportunities in states with greater purchasing power, as indicted by relatively high per capita income, including Lagos, the FCT Abuja, as well as Oyo, Osun in the SW and Kaduna and Nassarawa (both next to the FCT Abuja), and the Niger Delta states. We see opportunities for banks to expand services and employees into states that have a combination of high income and population densities, as that will provide the footfall required to open a bank branch. States that fit this profile are Anambra, Imo and Abia in the SE region; Akwa Ibom and Rivers in the Niger Delta region; and Osun in the SW. 

Below is the Socioeconomic profile of Nigeria’s states

Figure 38: Socioeconomic profile of Nigeria’s states States  GDP, $bn (2012E)  % of Nigeria’s GDP  Population , mn (2012E)  % of Nigeria’s population  GDP per capita, $ (2012E)  Net secondary school attendance rate, ratio (2007) 
Lagos 31.2 11.4 10.7 6.5 2,916 85
Kano 16.8 6.2 11.0 6.7 1,525 28
Oyo 14.2 5.2 6.5 4.0 2,165 71
Kaduna 13.3 4.9 7.2 4.4 1,860 49
Rivers 11.3 4.2 6.1 3.7 1,859 75
Katsina 10.6 3.9 6.8 4.1 1,554 17
Osun  9.4  3.5  4.0  2.4  2,356  77 
Imo 9.1 3.3 4.6 2.8 1,983 74
Anambra 8.9 3.3 4.9 3.0 1,814 72
Akwa Ibom 8.2 3.0 4.6 2.8 1,783 70
Borno 8.0 2.9 4.9 3.0 1,631 8
Bauchi 7.8 2.9 5.5 3.3 1,432 5
Niger 7.6 2.8 4.6 2.8 1,631 56
FCT Abuja 6.8 2.5 1.6 1.0 4,094 67
Edo 6.7 2.4 3.8 2.3 1,756 70
Abia 6.3 2.3 3.4 2.1 1,855 79
Plateau 6.2 2.3 3.8 2.3 1,640 46
Benue 6.1 2.2 5.0 3.0 1,226 56
Delta 6.0 2.2 4.8 2.9 1,249 75
Ondo 5.9 2.2 4.1 2.5 1,457 76
Zamfara 5.7 2.1 3.8 2.3 1,492 18
Sokoto 5.7 2.1 4.3 2.6 1,313 15
Enugu 5.0 1.8 3.8 2.3 1,299 70
Kogi 4.8 1.8 3.9 2.4 1,235 74
Adamawa 4.6 1.7 3.7 2.3 1,233 11
Nasarawa 4.4 1.6 2.2 1.3 1,997 57
Jigawa 4.4 1.6 5.1 3.1 853 23
Kebbi 4.2 1.5 3.8 2.3 1,104 21
Cross River 4.2 1.5 3.4 2.1 1,242 71
Ekiti 4.2 1.5 2.8 1.7 1,495 85
Ogun 4.2 1.5 4.4 2.7 952 75
Kwara 4.0 1.5 2.8 1.7 1,454 70
Taraba 3.9 1.4 2.7 1.6 1,444 6
Bayelsa 3.6 1.3 2.0 1.2 1,816 74
Ebonyi 3.6 1.3 2.6 1.6 1,400 56
Yobe 3.3 1.2 2.7 1.7 1,207 7
Gombe 2.9 1.1 2.8 1.7 1,041 16
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, National Population Commission, Renaissance Capital estimates

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